# Eroteme — full blog corpus for LLM ingestion > Eroteme is where people make predictions and put them on the record. Forecasts are compared with live market prices and four AI models, then scored as markets resolve. Generated: 2026-10-07T22:44:05.562Z Source: https://eroteme.ai Post count: 2 Each post below appears under a level-2 heading carrying the canonical URL. Frontmatter (title, date, category, tags) is preserved in a small block, then the full markdown body of the post follows. Posts are ordered newest first. --- ## The Eroteme Accuracy Record: Understanding AI Model Performance **URL:** https://eroteme.ai/blog/eroteme-ai-accuracy-record **Title:** The Eroteme Accuracy Record: Understanding AI Model Performance **Date:** April 5, 2026 **Category:** Platform **Tags:** Accuracy, AI Models, Transparency, Data, Brier Score **Description:** Eroteme publishes every AI prediction outcome. See how we track accuracy with Brier scores, category breakdowns, and rolling metrics. > **TL;DR** — Eroteme scores every AI prediction with [Brier scores](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score) and publishes wrong calls alongside right ones. The accuracy dashboard updates in real time as Polymarket resolves markets, so accuracy is verifiable, not self-reported — the same transparency standard professional forecasters apply to their own books. # The Eroteme Accuracy Record: Understanding AI Model Performance Most prediction platforms hide their misses. We publish ours. Every resolved prediction on Eroteme gets scored, categorized, and added to the public accuracy dashboard. Right calls and wrong calls sit side by side. No filtering. No selective reporting. No convenient amnesia about that time the model gave 82% confidence to the wrong outcome. This post explains exactly how we measure AI performance, what the numbers mean, and how you can use them to make sharper betting decisions. ## Why We Publish Wrong Predictions Paul Benter built a horse racing model that earned over $1 billion. Billy Walters ran the most profitable sports betting operation in history. Both men shared one core belief: your edge comes from knowing where your model fails, not from pretending it doesn't. Benter tracked every losing bet with the same rigor as every winner. Walters obsessed over the games his system mispriced. They treated errors as data, not embarrassments. Eroteme operates the same way. Our ensemble AI system runs multiple models on every prediction. Sometimes those models disagree. Sometimes the consensus is wrong. We record all of it because accountability is the product. If a platform only shows you wins, it is selling you confidence. We sell you information. ## How We Measure Accuracy Three metrics power the accuracy dashboard: hit rate, Brier score, and category breakdown. Each tells a different part of the story. ### Hit Rate The simplest measure. Of all resolved predictions, what percentage did the AI get right? As of this writing, the ensemble model sits at 68% overall accuracy across all categories. That number alone is useful but incomplete. A model that only predicts heavy favorites could hit 70% and still lose money. Context matters. ### Brier Score The Brier score is the gold standard for evaluating probabilistic forecasts. It measures how close your confidence levels are to actual outcomes on a scale from 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst possible). Here is what the numbers mean in practice: - **0.10 - 0.15**: Excellent calibration. The model's confidence levels closely match reality. - **0.15 - 0.20**: Strong performance. Competitive with top forecasting systems. - **0.20 - 0.25**: Average. The model adds value but leaves edge on the table. - **0.25 - 0.35**: Below average. Confidence levels need recalibration. - **0.35+**: Poor. The model is overconfident on wrong calls or underconfident on right ones. A Brier score of 0.15 means when the model says 80% chance, the event happens roughly 80% of the time. A score of 0.25 means those 80% calls are actually hitting closer to 65-70%. That gap is where money gets lost. The Eroteme ensemble currently holds a Brier score of 0.18 across all resolved predictions. Strong, not perfect. We are working to get it below 0.15 by Q3 2026. ## Category Breakdowns: Where the AI Excels and Struggles Not all prediction categories perform equally. The accuracy dashboard breaks results into distinct verticals so you can calibrate your trust accordingly. **Sports** -- 71% hit rate, 0.16 Brier score. This is the model's strongest category. High data availability, well-defined outcomes, and decades of statistical baselines give the AI the most material to work with. NFL and NBA predictions outperform soccer and tennis. **Crypto** -- 63% hit rate, 0.22 Brier score. Volatile by nature. The model handles directional calls (will BTC be above $X by date Y) better than magnitude predictions. Short-term crypto forecasts (24-72 hours) score worse than 7-30 day windows. **Politics** -- 66% hit rate, 0.19 Brier score. Steady improvement over the last 90 days. The model reads polling data, prediction market prices, and sentiment signals. It performs best on elections with robust polling infrastructure and worst on legislative outcomes where vote counts shift overnight. These numbers update in real time on the dashboard. What you see today will differ from what you see next month. That is the point. ## Rolling Windows: 30, 90, and All-Time A single accuracy number is a blunt instrument. Performance drifts. Markets change. The model adapts. The accuracy dashboard shows three time windows for every metric: **30-day rolling** tracks recent performance. If the model just had a bad stretch in crypto, this number reflects it immediately. Use this window to gauge current form. **90-day rolling** smooths out noise. A two-week losing streak in one category does not dominate the picture. This is the most reliable window for evaluating whether model improvements are working. **All-time** provides the full historical record. Every prediction since launch, scored and categorized. This number moves slowly. It is the baseline, not the signal. Smart users compare 30-day performance against the 90-day and all-time averages. When the 30-day Brier score in a category spikes above the all-time average, the model is in a rough patch for that vertical. When it drops below, conditions favor the AI. ## The Ensemble Advantage Eroteme does not run a single AI model. The platform operates an ensemble system that aggregates outputs from multiple providers. Each provider's accuracy gets tracked independently in a provider insights table on the dashboard. Why does this matter? Because no single model dominates across all categories and timeframes. Provider A might crush sports predictions but stumble on political races. Provider B might handle crypto volatility better than anyone but miss NFL spreads. The ensemble weighs each provider's output based on historical performance in the relevant category. The consensus prediction you see on Eroteme is the product of that weighted aggregation. The provider insights table shows you exactly how each underlying model performed. You can see which providers agreed, which dissented, and how the final consensus was formed. When providers disagree sharply, the system flags that prediction as lower conviction. ## How to Use the Dashboard for Smarter Bets The accuracy record is not a trophy case. It is a tool. Here is how to use it. **Check category performance before betting.** If the model's 30-day Brier score in crypto is 0.28 while the all-time sits at 0.22, the model is underperforming in that vertical right now. Size your positions accordingly or look for spots to [bet against the AI](/blog/how-to-bet-against-ai-predictions). **Watch provider agreement levels.** Predictions where 4 out of 5 providers agree carry different weight than 3-2 splits. The dashboard shows this. High-agreement predictions historically hit at 76%. Low-agreement predictions hit at 54%. **Track calibration, not just wins.** A model that says 90% and wins 90% of the time is better than a model that says 90% and wins 80%. Both win a lot. Only one is correctly priced. The Brier score captures this distinction. If you want to understand how the full prediction pipeline works, read [How Eroteme AI Predictions Work](/blog/how-eroteme-ai-predictions-work). **Compare time windows.** Improving 30-day numbers against a stable 90-day baseline mean the model is getting better. Declining 30-day numbers mean caution. ## The Accountability Standard We built the accuracy dashboard because the prediction industry has a transparency problem. Tipsters screenshot wins and delete losses. Platforms advertise "AI-powered" without disclosing hit rates. Nobody shows you the Brier score. Eroteme treats accuracy data the way a public company treats financial statements. You get the full picture, updated continuously, auditable by anyone. The numbers are the numbers. This approach costs us something. Every wrong prediction sits in public view. Every bad week in a category is visible. But the alternative -- hiding performance data and asking users to trust us -- is not a business model. It is a confidence game. The data is live. The record is public. The model keeps improving. --- ## Frequently asked questions **What is a Brier score?** A Brier score measures how well-calibrated a probabilistic forecast is — lower is better, with 0.0 being perfect. It's the standard metric used in forecasting research (Tetlock's Good Judgment Project, the IARPA tournaments) because it rewards both being right AND being appropriately uncertain. The [original Brier 1950 paper](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/78/1/1520-0493_1950_078_0001_vofeit_2_0_co_2.xml) defined it. **Why does Eroteme publish wrong predictions?** Hiding misses is the standard tipster playbook and the reason most "track records" are noise. Professional bettors like Bill Benter and Billy Walters tracked every loss with the same rigour as every win, because edge comes from knowing where the model fails. Eroteme publishes the full record for the same reason. **How is AI accuracy measured on Eroteme?** Three numbers: hit rate (% correct), Brier score (calibration), and category-specific breakdowns. Hit rate alone is misleading — a model that says "55%" on every coin flip will look correct 55% of the time but contributes no information. Brier rewards confident calls that pan out and penalises overconfident misses. **How does Eroteme's accuracy compare to other AI prediction platforms?** Most competitors either don't publish per-model accuracy or only show aggregate hit rates without Brier scores. Eroteme publishes both, per category, per model, with the underlying market resolution data on Polymarket as the source of truth. **Where can I see live accuracy stats?** The [accuracy dashboard](https://eroteme.ai/ai-accuracy) shows rolling Brier scores, category breakdowns, and head-to-head model performance. Updates automatically as Polymarket resolves each market. --- **[View the AI's latest prediction at eroteme.ai](https://eroteme.ai)** --- ## USDC Betting on Polygon: How On-Chain Sports Prediction Markets Work **URL:** https://eroteme.ai/blog/usdc-betting-polygon-prediction-markets **Title:** USDC Betting on Polygon: How On-Chain Sports Prediction Markets Work **Date:** April 5, 2026 **Category:** Guides **Tags:** USDC, Polygon, prediction markets, crypto, on-chain betting, smart contracts, guides **Description:** Learn how USDC and Polygon power fast, low-cost sports prediction markets. No crypto experience needed. Sign in with email, fund with a card, start predicting. > **TL;DR** — On-chain prediction markets settle in [USDC](https://www.circle.com/en/usdc) on [Polygon](https://polygon.technology) — funds move directly between wallets in seconds, with no 3–5% card fee and no 3–7 day withdrawal hold. You can sign up with email and fund with a card; the crypto rails are invisible. Smart contracts handle the payout the instant a market resolves. # USDC Betting on Polygon: How On-Chain Sports Prediction Markets Work You want to bet on who wins the NBA Finals. You do not want a 45-minute crash course in cryptocurrency. Fair enough. This guide explains exactly how on-chain prediction markets work, why they use USDC on the Polygon network, and why none of that requires you to touch a crypto wallet. ## The Problem With Traditional Betting Payments Traditional sportsbooks run on bank rails. That means wire transfers, credit card holds, and withdrawal windows that stretch from 3 to 7 business days. A $200 winning payout sits in processing limbo while your bank and the sportsbook's bank talk to each other through intermediaries. Credit card deposits often carry 3-5% processing fees. International bettors face currency conversion charges on top of that. These costs eat into your returns before you place a single prediction. On-chain settlement fixes this. Funds move directly between wallets on a public blockchain, with no intermediary bank slowing things down. Payouts arrive in seconds, not days. ## What Is USDC (and Why Not Regular Crypto)? USDC is a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. One USDC always equals one dollar. Circle, the company behind USDC, holds equivalent reserves in cash and short-term US Treasuries, audited monthly by Deloitte. This matters because Bitcoin and Ethereum swing 5-10% in a single day. If you deposit $100 in ETH to make a prediction, your balance might drop to $91 before the game even starts. USDC removes that volatility entirely. Your $100 stays $100. Over $32 billion in USDC circulates across blockchains today. It is the most widely used stablecoin in DeFi, accepted by every major exchange, and redeemable for US dollars at any time. For prediction markets, it acts as a digital dollar: stable, fast, and programmable. ## Why Polygon? Speed and Cost Ethereum processes roughly 15 transactions per second and charges gas fees that can spike above $50 during busy periods. That makes no sense for a $10 sports prediction. Polygon is a Layer 2 network built on top of Ethereum. It inherits Ethereum's security guarantees while processing transactions faster and cheaper. Here are the numbers: - **Transaction speed**: 2-second confirmation times on Polygon vs. 12-15 seconds on Ethereum mainnet - **Gas fees**: Fractions of a cent on Polygon vs. $2-$50+ on Ethereum mainnet - **Throughput**: Up to 7,000 transactions per second For prediction markets, this means placing a bet, adjusting a position, or collecting a payout costs effectively nothing in network fees. You can make 100 predictions and spend less than a penny in total gas costs. ## How Smart Contracts Hold and Settle Funds A smart contract is a program that lives on the blockchain and executes automatically when conditions are met. Think of it as an escrow agent that cannot be bribed, cannot lose your paperwork, and works 24/7. Here is what happens when you place a prediction on [Eroteme](https://eroteme.ai): 1. **You place a prediction.** Your USDC moves from your wallet into the smart contract. The contract records your position, the amount, and the market conditions. 2. **The market stays open.** Other users take opposing positions. All funds sit in the smart contract, visible on the blockchain. Nobody -- not Eroteme, not any third party -- can withdraw those funds early. 3. **The event resolves.** An oracle (a trusted data feed) reports the outcome. The smart contract verifies the result and distributes USDC to winners automatically. No human approves payouts. No compliance team reviews your withdrawal. The code runs, funds move, and you see USDC in your wallet within seconds of resolution. This is a fundamentally different trust model from traditional sportsbooks. Your funds never sit in a company's bank account. They sit in auditable code on a public network. You can verify every transaction on [Polygonscan](https://polygonscan.com) at any time. For a full breakdown of how peer-to-peer prediction markets differ from traditional sportsbooks, read our guide on [P2P betting and prediction markets](/blog/p2p-betting-prediction-markets-guide). ## What "Gasless Transactions" Means Every blockchain transaction requires a small fee called gas. On Polygon, these fees cost fractions of a cent -- but paying them still requires holding MATIC (Polygon's native token) in your wallet. That creates friction for new users who just want to make a sports prediction, not manage multiple crypto tokens. Eroteme sponsors your gas fees. Every transaction you make on the platform -- placing a prediction, claiming a payout, adjusting a position -- costs you zero in gas. The platform covers these costs through meta-transactions, a system where Eroteme's relayer submits your transaction on your behalf and pays the network fee. From your perspective: you click a button, and it works. No MATIC balance to maintain. No gas estimation pop-ups. No failed transactions because you did not budget enough for fees. ## You Do Not Need Crypto Experience This is the part that matters most. Eroteme handles the entire crypto layer so you do not have to. **Sign in with email.** No MetaMask. No seed phrases. No browser extensions. Your account creates a smart wallet behind the scenes, secured by your login credentials. **Fund with a debit card.** Eroteme integrates Transak, a regulated fiat-to-crypto on-ramp. You enter your card details, buy USDC, and it lands in your prediction wallet. The process takes under 2 minutes and feels identical to any online checkout. **Withdraw to your bank.** When you want to cash out, convert USDC back to your local currency through the same Transak integration. Funds hit your bank account. The blockchain infrastructure runs underneath, the same way TCP/IP runs underneath every website you visit. You benefit from the speed, transparency, and security without managing any of it directly. ## Your First Prediction in 3 Steps **Step 1: Create an account.** Go to [eroteme.ai](https://eroteme.ai) and sign up with your email. Takes 30 seconds. **Step 2: Fund your wallet.** Click "Deposit," select your amount, and pay with a debit card through Transak. USDC appears in your balance within minutes. **Step 3: Pick a market and predict.** Browse open markets -- NBA games, UFC fights, Premier League matches. Select your position, enter your stake, and confirm. The smart contract locks your USDC until the event resolves. That is it. Three steps from sign-up to live prediction. Want to understand how our AI models generate the probability estimates behind each market? Read [how Eroteme AI predictions work](/blog/how-eroteme-ai-predictions-work). ## The Bottom Line USDC on Polygon gives prediction markets three things traditional sportsbooks cannot match: instant settlement, near-zero fees, and transparent fund custody. Your money sits in auditable smart contracts, not corporate bank accounts. Payouts arrive in seconds, not business days. And transaction costs stay below a penny. Eroteme wraps all of this in a standard web experience. Email sign-in. Card deposits. Gasless transactions. You get the benefits of on-chain settlement without the complexity of managing crypto. The infrastructure is real. The math checks out. The only question left is what you want to predict. --- ## Frequently asked questions **What is USDC and why does it matter for betting?** USDC is a fully-reserved US dollar stablecoin issued by [Circle](https://www.circle.com/en/usdc). 1 USDC = $1, backed 1:1 by cash and short-term US Treasuries. Using USDC instead of volatile crypto means your prediction-market position is settled in stable dollars — no surprise FX risk between placing a bet and getting paid. **Why does Eroteme use Polygon instead of Ethereum?** Polygon is a Layer 2 network with the same security model as Ethereum but transaction fees of fractions of a cent (vs $5–20 on mainnet). For prediction markets where bets settle frequently, the gas savings compound dramatically. Withdrawals back to Ethereum mainnet are a single click when you want them. **Do I need a crypto wallet to bet on Eroteme?** No. Sign up with email, fund with a card, the platform handles wallet provisioning under the hood (Magic SDK). The on-chain settlement still happens — you just don't have to touch a seed phrase. **How fast are USDC payouts?** Seconds, not days. The smart contract releases funds the moment the market resolves on [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com). Compare to 3–7 day bank holds on traditional sportsbook withdrawals. **Are gas fees a problem on Polygon?** No. Average Polygon transaction costs $0.001–$0.01, and Eroteme covers gas on most actions via meta-transactions. You'll never see a dialog asking you to pay gas before placing a bet. --- [Start predicting at eroteme.ai](https://eroteme.ai) ---