Prediction Leaderboard

Top forecasters. Ranked 70% by how hard your average call is, 30% by how often you’re right.

How Rankings Are Calculated

Earning points

Correct predictions earn difficulty points based on how unlikely the outcome was.

10% underdog≈ 330
50% coin flip= 100
90% favorite= 15
Wrong call0
Your score
avg difficulty × 70%
+ accuracy × 30%

Uses your average, not total. A sharp 10-prediction creator can rank alongside a high-volume one.

Wrong calls earn 0 points and still count toward your average.

Why both matter
  • Bold without accuracy = lucky guessing
  • Accurate on easy calls = playing it safe
  • Top of the board: hard calls AND right
Worked Example
Analyst A
Predictions
100
Avg difficulty
50
Accuracy
50%
50 × 0.7 + 50 × 0.3
Score50
Winner
Analyst B
Predictions
10
Avg difficulty
100
Accuracy
70%
100 × 0.7 + 70 × 0.3
Score91

Each of B's calls is harder and lands more often. Quality beats volume.

This system rewards both taking calculated risks and maintaining consistency.

Ranking Formula

70% Difficulty + 30% Accuracy

Open to All

Every forecaster with a prediction ranks

Live Updates

Rankings update as markets resolve