Bresnahan trails Cognetti in PA-08, leaving Republicans the underdog

politicsCloses 7d

Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?

Yes 14%No 86%

No 67%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Bitcoin sits just above $80,000 with a dip to $78,000 looking more likely than not

cryptoCloses 5d

Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 26-November 1?

Yes 57%No 43%

Yes 62%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Tucker Wetmore looks unlikely to take CMA New Artist of the Year

cultureCloses 22d

Will Tucker Wetmore win New Artist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

Yes 41%No 59%

No 75%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Roma look the stronger side to beat Cagliari at the Olimpico

sportsCloses 11h

Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-27?

Yes 74%No 26%

Yes 61%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Quake count for 26 October to 1 November likely to top six

scienceCloses 5d

Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Yes 14%No 86%

No 84%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Eli Lilly looks more likely than not to clear its earnings bar

businessCloses 2d

Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Yes 56%No 44%

Yes 76%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Democrats face a steep climb to win North Carolina's 13th District

politicsCloses 7d

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?

Yes 32%No 68%

No 95%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agreeMarket disagrees

Bitcoin looks short of the $84,000 line for its Nov. 1 noon close

cryptoCloses 5d

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 1?

Yes 20%No 80%

No 90%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Tate McRae's "Housewife" looks unlikely to land at No. 2 on the Hot 100

culture✗ Incorrect

Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?

Yes 77%No 23%

No 75%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Coritiba are less likely than not to beat Grêmio at Couto Pereira

sports✓ Correct

Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-10-26?

Yes 44%No 56%

No 60%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Gemini 4 Argon (High) holds first place on the Arena text board

techCloses 6d

Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?

Yes 70%No 30%

Yes 78%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Elon Musk's fortune sits above $900B, so the $800B to $900B band looks unlikely

financeCloses 4d

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on October 31?

Yes 26%No 74%

No 70%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Neither Israeli bloc looks likely to reach 61 seats in the election

worldCloses 19h

Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?

Yes 12%No 88%

No 77%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Ether bounces off $2,300 dip, still leans above the line

cryptoCloses 7h

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 27?

Yes 69%No 31%

Yes 67%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

You Can See Everything looks set to land just short of $21M

cultureAwaiting result

Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least $21M?

Yes 14%No 86%

No 87%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Manchester United can be denied a win by Bournemouth at Old Trafford

sports✓ Correct

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?

Yes 44%No 56%

No 56.18%AI forecast · models split · slight lean

OpenAI looks likely to hold second place among Agent Arena labs

techCloses 4d

Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?

Yes 92%No 8%

Yes 71%AI forecast · 3 of 4 models agree

Eurozone Q3 growth looks more likely to miss the 0.8% to 1.1% band

financeCloses 2d

Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?

Yes 68%No 32%

No 67%AI forecast · 3 of 4 models agreeMarket disagrees

Flávio Bolsonaro faces an uphill climb to carry Pará in the runoff

politics✓ Correct

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?

Yes 13%No 87%

No 73%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree

Solana looks set to hold above $100 as the October 25 window closes

crypto✗ Incorrect

Will Solana dip to $100 October 19-25?

Yes 19%No 81%

No 80%AI forecast · 4 of 4 models agree