Tech predictions
AI forecasts for technology: AI model releases, product launches, company milestones and usage figures. Four AI models research each question and vote, and every forecast is marked right or wrong once it settles.
Hit rate: 70% (46 of 66 settled forecasts correct)
Series
Open forecasts
- Next GPT Sol (6.2+) Release Date prediction
AI: not released by November 15, 2026, 74%
2026-11-16
- Next Claude Opus (5.6+) Release Date (Nov 30) prediction
AI: not released by November 30, 2026, 83%
2026-11-30
- #3 AI Lab End of November (Style Control On) prediction
AI: Anthropic is not #3 AI lab, 71%
2026-12-01
- Next DeepSeek Pro Release Date prediction
AI: not released by November 30, 2026, 77%
2026-12-01
- Next Claude Opus (5.6+) Release Date prediction
AI: no Claude Opus release by November 30, 2026, 65%
2026-12-01
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) Release Date prediction
AI: not released by November 30, 2026, 86%
2026-12-01
- Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) Release prediction
AI: no next Muse Spark model by November 30, 2026, 84%
2026-12-01
- Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) Release prediction
AI: no release by November 30, 2026, 71%
2026-12-01
Recent results
- Gemini Carbon Release Date prediction
Incorrect · said not released by November 15, 82%
2026-11-16
- Gemini Carbon Release Date (Nov 11) prediction
Correct · said not released on November 11, 2026, 95%
2026-11-12
- OpenRouter Token Usage Week of November 2 prediction
Correct · said OpenRouter processes 205T or more, 65%
2026-11-09
- Gemini Carbon Release Date (Nov 8) prediction
Correct · said not released between November 2 and November 8, 2026, 66%
2026-11-09
- GPT Astra 6.1+ Release Date (Nov 6) prediction
Correct · said not released on November 6, 2026, 94%
2026-11-07
- Next Fable Model (5.2+) Release Date prediction
Correct · said not released by November 5, 2026, 75%
2026-11-06
- Best AI Model on November 2 prediction
Incorrect · said Gemini 4 Argon High is best, 78%
2026-11-03
- GPT Astra 6.1+ Release Date prediction
Correct · said Astra 6.1+ not released by October 31, 95%
2026-10-31
- Next Gemini Pro Model Release prediction
Correct · said no release by October 31, 59%
2026-10-31
- Claude Down Days in October prediction
Correct · said 5 or more times, 56%
2026-11-01
- #3 AI Lab End of October (Style Control On) prediction
Incorrect · said Meta is not #3, 65%
2026-11-01
- Second-Best Text Arena Math AI Lab End of October prediction
Correct · said Anthropic is second-best, 70%
2026-10-31
- Second-Best AI Agent Lab End of October prediction
Incorrect · said OpenAI is second-best, 71%
2026-10-31
- PHP2Shell Exploitation Confirmation prediction
Correct · said confirmed by October 31, 65%
2026-11-01
- OpenRouter AI Token Usage Sep 28 to Oct 25 prediction
Incorrect · said not between 675T and 725T tokens, 73%
2026-10-26
- OpenRouter Token Usage Week of October 19 prediction
Correct · said not between 175T and 185T tokens, 79%
2026-10-26
- #2 AI Lab OpenRouter Share October 19 prediction
Correct · said OpenAI is not #2, 66%
2026-10-27
- #1 AI Lab by OpenRouter Market Share Week of October 19 prediction
Correct · said DeepSeek has the highest share, 76%
2026-10-27
- #3 AI Lab OpenRouter Market Share October 19 prediction
Correct · said OpenAI is third-highest, 61%
2026-10-27
- Best AI Model on October 19 prediction
Correct · said Gemini 4 Argon High is best, 76%
2026-10-20
- #3 AI Lab by OpenRouter Market Share Week of October 12 prediction
Correct · said Google is not #3, 73%
2026-10-20
- Gemini Argon Release Date prediction
Incorrect · said not released by October 31, 73%
2026-11-01
- Gemini Argon Release Date (Oct 13) prediction
Incorrect · said not released on October 13, 95%
2026-10-14
- #2 AI Lab by OpenRouter Market Share Week of September 28 prediction
Incorrect · said Google is not #2, 92%
2026-10-06
- ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026 prediction
Correct · said not exactly 3 outages, 88%
2026-10-01
- GPU Rental Prices (RTX 5090) End of September prediction
Correct · said Ornn RTX 5090 Index at least $0.60, 82%
2026-09-30
- Claude go down on days in September prediction
Correct · said No, 88%
2026-10-01
- Gemini 4.0 Release Date prediction
Correct · said not released by September 30, 85%
2026-10-01
- Meta Watermelon Model Release Date prediction
Correct · said not released by September 30, 68%
2026-09-30
- Elon Musk Pacing the Frontier Statement by September 30 prediction
Correct · said Musk does not sign the statement, 82%
2026-10-01
- Second-Best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab End of September prediction
Correct · said Anthropic is not second-best, 73%
2026-09-30
- Trump Renames AI by September 30 prediction
Incorrect · said does not rename AI, 71%
2026-10-01
- OpenAI AI Sandbox Escape Report prediction
Incorrect · said no escape report by September 30, 75%
2026-10-01
- AI Model Overall Arena Score by September 30 prediction
Correct · said a model reaches 1520, 95%
2026-10-01
- OpenAI Astra Release Date prediction
Incorrect · said Astra not released by September 15, 2026, 65%
2026-09-15
- Next Claude Sonnet Release Date prediction
Correct · said not released by August 31, 2026, 93%
2026-09-01
- Next Claude Opus Release Date prediction
Correct · said not released by August 31, 95%
2026-09-01
- GPT-6 Release Date prediction
Correct · said not released by August 31, 75%
2026-09-01
- Best AI Model End of July prediction
Correct · said Anthropic has the best model, 65%
2026-07-31
- Tesla Deliveries in Q2 2026 prediction
Incorrect · said under 475,000 vehicles, 75%
2026-06-30
- #1 Paid App in US Apple App Store on April 10 prediction
Correct · said HotSchedules is not #1, 57%
2026-04-10
- #1 Free App in US Apple App Store on April 7 prediction
Correct · said ChatGPT is #1, 95%
2026-04-07
- #1 Paid App in US Apple App Store on April 3 prediction
Correct · said DualShot Recorder is #1, 80%
2026-04-03
- #2 Free App in US Apple App Store on March 24 prediction
Correct · said Claude by Anthropic is #2, 74%
2026-03-24