World predictions
AI forecasts for world events: conflicts, ceasefires, diplomacy and elections abroad. Four AI models research each question and vote, and every forecast is marked right or wrong once it settles.
Hit rate: 79% (73 of 92 settled forecasts correct)
Open forecasts
- Next Prime Minister of Israel prediction
AI: Benjamin Netanyahu is not next, 61%
2026-10-28
- Eritrea Invades Ethiopia prediction
AI: Eritrea does not invade by October 31, 65%
2026-11-01
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire (2 Week Pause) (Nov 15) prediction
AI: ceasefire does not begin by November 15, 65%
2026-11-15
- Bank of Israel Decision in November prediction
AI: no change to the interest rate, 78%
2026-11-23
- Next Israeli Government Formed prediction
AI: not formed by November 30, 65%
2026-11-30
- Russia x Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Agreement prediction
AI: no agreement by November 30, 84%
2026-11-30
- Strait of Hormuz Ship Transits End of November prediction
AI: not between 25 and 29 daily transits, 94%
2026-12-01
- Israeli Airspace Closed (Excluding Holiday) prediction
AI: not closed by November 30, 89%
2026-12-01
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement prediction
AI: no agreement by November 30, 83%
2026-12-01
Recent results
- US-Iran Effective Ceasefire prediction
Correct · said not continued through November 30, 2026, 59%
2026-12-01
- Israel Election Yisrael Beiteinu Vote Share prediction
Correct · said Yisrael Beiteinu wins 5% or more, 89%
2026-10-27
- Plane Stabbing Incident Accusation by Oct 31 prediction
Correct · said Israel does not accuse Iran/proxies, 91%
2026-11-01
- Israel Election Likud Seat Loss prediction
Correct · said Likud loses seats, 89%
2026-10-28
- Israeli Legislative Election 3rd Place prediction
Correct · said Together wins third-most seats, 69%
2026-10-28
- Israel Election Likud Seat Count prediction
Correct · said Likud wins 20 or more seats, 69%
2026-10-28
- Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place prediction
Incorrect · said Yashar does not win second-most seats, 67%
2026-10-28
- Israel Election Coalition Majority prediction
Correct · said no coalition wins a majority, 77%
2026-10-28
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner prediction
Incorrect · said Likud does not win the most seats, 67%
2026-10-28
- Saudi Arabia Military Action Against Yemen prediction
Incorrect · said military action on September 30, 65%
2026-09-30
- Bank of Russia Decision in October prediction
Correct · said no change to key rate, 78%
2026-10-24
- Bank of Israel Decision in October prediction
Correct · said rate not decreased after October decision, 62%
2026-10-21
- Hormuz Ship Transits by Any Date prediction
Correct · said not 0 ships transit by September 30, 87%
2026-10-01
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait Ship Transits End of September prediction
Correct · said 25 or more daily transits, 63%
2026-10-01
- Saudi East-West Oil Pipeline Restart prediction
Correct · said not restarted by September 30, 64%
2026-10-01
- US-Iran Ceasefire Continues prediction
Correct · said continues through September 30, 66%
2026-09-30
- How long will Trump and Xi shake hands prediction
Correct · said No, 81%
2026-10-08
- Russia Elections prediction
Correct · said United Russia wins every region, 65%
2027-10-01
- Xi Jinping US Visit prediction
Correct · said Xi Jinping visits US by September 23, 95%
2026-09-23
- Bab el-Mandeb Ship Transits Week of September 14 prediction
Incorrect · said fewer than 170 ships transit, 69%
2026-09-20
- Next US-Iran Peace Talks prediction
Incorrect · said no qualifying meeting held, 72%
2026-10-01
- Trump x Greenland Deal Signed prediction
Correct · said deal signed by September 23, 79%
2026-09-24
- Bank of Russia Decision in September prediction
Correct · said no change to the key rate, 65%
2026-09-11
- Israel Election Same List prediction
Incorrect · said Zionist Home & Yashar do not run on same list, 67%
2026-09-08
- Israel Election: Likud & RZP Same List prediction
Correct · said Likud and RZP do not run on same list, 80%
2026-09-07
- US-Iran 60 Day Negotiation Period prediction
Correct · said period is not extended, 62%
2026-08-20
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement prediction
Correct · said no agreement by August 15, 68%
2026-08-15
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire (2 Week Pause) prediction
Incorrect · said no effective ceasefire by July 31, 95%
2026-07-31
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues prediction
Correct · said Yes, 73%
2026-07-31
- US End of Iranian Blockade Announcement prediction
Correct · said no end of blockade by July 24, 75%
2026-07-24
- Iran MOU Negotiations Withdrawal prediction
Correct · said no withdrawal announced by July 24, 95%
2026-07-24
- Bank of Russia Decision in July prediction
Correct · said key rate is changed, 75%
2026-07-24
- Iran Military Action Against a Gulf State prediction
Incorrect · said military action on July 13, 75%
2026-07-13
- Iran Full Airspace Closure prediction
Correct · said no full airspace closure by July 15, 75%
2026-07-15
- Iran Targets Shipping prediction
Correct · said does not successfully target shipping on July 8, 95%
2026-07-08
- Next Round of US-Iran Peace Talks prediction
Correct · said no meeting by July 3, 2026, 75%
2026-07-03
- Countries Recognizing Israel by June 30 prediction
Correct · said Lebanon does not recognize Israel, 75%
2026-06-30
- Iranian Demands Trump Agrees To by June 30 prediction
Correct · said no agreement on transit fees, 95%
2026-06-30
- Strait of Hormuz Ship Transits by June 30 prediction
Incorrect · said no day reaches 40 transits, 75%
2026-06-30
- Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal prediction
Correct · said no peace deal by June 30, 75%
2026-06-30