Israeli Legislative Election 3rd Place prediction

A poll conducted on October 12, with 509 respondents and a stated margin of error of 4.4 percent, put Naftali Bennett's list at 13 seats, reported as unchanged. The same survey had Eisenkot's Yashar first on 23 and Netanyahu's Likud second on 20. The Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu were reported on nine seats each. The JTA tracker, which combines the newest survey from each of Israel's eight polling firms, lists the parties in the same order: Yashar, Likud, then Bennett's B'yachad, which is Together. The tracker's printed line for Bennett's list is garbled in the material, so I will not quote a precise seat figure or range from it. What it shows clearly is the ordering, with Together third among the displayed lists. That ordering is why the lean is toward Together taking third. The lists below it in the tracker, such as The Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism, are shown with lower projections than Bennett's. The case is not secure. Third place depends on a single list holding its place in the ranking, and polls carry error. One report, dated October 14, says both blocs are well short of a majority and that small parties are hovering near the entry threshold of four seats. That points to a fluid field. Yashar and Likud are also ahead of Together, so any slip in the polls could move it down. Election Day is October 27, with official results expected from the Central Elections Committee on November 4. The thing to watch is whether Bennett's list keeps its gap over the cluster of parties on nine seats in the final polls.