Next Prime Minister of Israel prediction

Israel's outgoing coalition averages 51.6 seats in the latest polls, nine short of the 61 needed for a majority, with individual outlets ranging from 47 to 64. The vote is scheduled for Oct. 27, and official results are due to be confirmed on Nov. 4. That gap is the core of the case that Benjamin Netanyahu will not be the next person sworn in as Prime Minister. The race is close, though. Reporting describes polling as showing a tight contest between Netanyahu and his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, with an uncertain outcome. One poll put Eisenkot's Yashar party first with 23 seats, ahead of Likud on 21. Neither side looks able to govern alone. The latest polls suggest neither major bloc is close to a majority by itself. The opposition change bloc may be competitive but, according to reporting, has no clear route to a government without relying on Arab parties. That leaves coalition bargaining, and possibly a stalemate, to decide things. The window runs to the end of 2027, which leaves room for long talks or a repeat vote. Netanyahu's camp is not out of it, since the spread in polls includes a result as high as 64 seats. Reporting also frames the election as a referendum on his leadership, as the only senior figure from Oct. 7 still in office. The thing to watch is whether the final polls before Oct. 27 lift the coalition's average toward 61 seats. A sustained move there would change the picture most.