US x Iran Effective Ceasefire (2 Week Pause) (Nov 15) prediction

President Donald Trump said on Thursday, November 12, that "We don't need a deal with Iran," adding that the US has "their money" and "their Strait." He also told Vice President JD Vance to turn his attention to domestic matters instead of talks. Vance had reportedly been in contact with intermediaries in Iran and Qatar about restarting negotiations. That matters because the forecast leans toward the 14-day quiet period not being completed by November 15. The window opened on November 8, so a Yes would need a stretch free of qualifying US strikes on Iranian territory to have begun in the days between market creation and Sunday, November 15. The diplomatic track that might have produced such a pause looks stalled rather than advancing. A report published November 12 says the two sides have continued to exchange strikes, though not at the intensity of the early stages of the conflict. That report does not say who struck what or whether anything landed on Iranian territory, so it cannot by itself show a qualifying US action. Trump has also said the war is effectively over in a military sense, and Rubio said there is no need for major combat operations. Iran's security council secretary denied that negotiations are taking place. Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran remains open to a deal and is waiting for Washington to respond to its terms. Iran has also threatened US bases if attacked. What to watch: whether Washington answers Tehran's terms or Vance's channel to Iran and Qatar revives.