Israeli Legislative Election Winner prediction

A Channel 12 poll published on October 6 put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar on 23 seats and Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud on 21. A KAN poll reported on October 4 showed the same split. Reporting also says Yashar overtook Likud in July, after Likud started the race ahead in April and then declined steadily. Other surveys point the same way, though with smaller totals. A Maariv poll and a Channel 13 poll each have Yashar on 21 and Likud on 19. Across these mainstream polls, Yashar is ahead by two to four seats. That is why the forecast leans toward Likud not finishing first. The lean is modest. A two to four seat gap three weeks before the October 27 vote is small enough that normal polling error could erase it. Direct Polls and Channel 14 show Likud on 28 and 31 seats, and those outliers leave a real chance that Likud finishes first. Polls are not results, and several of the figures here are attributed claims. Seats for the largest party also differ from which bloc can govern. Channel 12 gives the opposition 54 seats and Netanyahu's coalition 49, with neither near 61. Another average puts the outgoing coalition at 51.6 seats. The thing to watch is whether the Yashar lead holds in the final polls before the vote. If Likud closes to a tie or moves ahead in several mainstream surveys, the picture would change.