Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place prediction

A Channel 13 poll reported on Oct. 7 had Likud and Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar tied at 20 seats each. A tie like that shows why second place is hard to call, and why the forecast leans against Yashar taking it. Yashar is competitive. Reporting on fifteen seat polls released between Sept. 22 and Oct. 4 puts it at 21 to 23 seats in every one. A Maariv poll of polls on Oct. 4 had Yashar at 21.7 and Likud at 19.7. An i24NEWS poll fielded on Oct. 7 had Yashar down two seats at 20. The difficulty is that Yashar is not alone near the top, and the order of the top two is unsettled. Likud's median across those polls is 21, with a range from 18 to 32. Channel 14 has Likud at 31, with Yashar at 23, which would put Yashar second behind Likud. If Likud finishes first, Yashar can still be second. If Yashar finishes first, it cannot. A margin of a seat or two separates the outcomes in several polls. Yashar has also signed a surplus-vote deal with the Democrats, which may help at the margin. Watch the final polls before the Oct. 27 vote, especially whether Likud's numbers outside Channel 14 move toward or away from Yashar's.