Israel Election: Likud & RZP Same List prediction

Likud and the Religious Zionist Party have already taken the step that makes a merger difficult. The Religious Zionist Party held its internal primary in July, and Likud held its own in August. Candidates on both sides spent months campaigning for their own slots. Likud insiders are now fiercely protective of the positions they just won. That is not the behavior of parties quietly preparing a joint list. Smotrich has said plainly that he prefers to run independently. What coalition chatter exists has centered on other pairings, such as Otzma Yehudit or Moshe Feiglin, not a Likud tie-up. With the filing deadline before 7 September 2026 and no announced agreement or candidate-placement talks reported anywhere, the evidence points firmly toward two separate lists. The counterargument is real. The Religious Zionist Party is polling near or below the 3.25% threshold, and a wasted vote would hurt the entire right-wing bloc. That gives Likud some incentive to offer protected slots on a technical list. But incentive alone has not produced any concrete negotiation. Israeli parties facing this exact threshold squeeze more often solve it through smaller technical alliances among like-minded factions, not by folding into the largest party and losing their identity. The single thing to watch: credible reporting of direct candidate-slot negotiations between Likud and the Religious Zionist Party before the Central Elections Committee cutoff. Absent that, separate lists remain the clear path.