> Frequently Asked Questions

The AI Prediction Score is a probability — shown as a percentage — for each possible outcome of a market. A score of 70% means the AI thinks that outcome is roughly 70% likely.

It's not a single AI's guess. The score is the combined output of multiple AI models working together, and it updates as new information becomes available — for example when team news breaks or financial markets move.

Use the score as one input when deciding where to place your stake. It's a second opinion, not a guaranteed tip.

Eroteme runs an ensemble of five large language models: Claude (Anthropic), GPT-4o (OpenAI), Gemini (Google), Grok (xAI), and Perplexity.

Using multiple models is more reliable than relying on one. Each model has different training data and reasoning patterns, so when they all agree on an outcome, that consensus is a stronger signal than any single model on its own. When they disagree, that disagreement itself tells you the outcome is genuinely uncertain.

Each model is weighted differently depending on the prediction category. Models with better track records in sports get more weight on sports markets; models stronger in financial reasoning get more weight on crypto and stocks.

Before any prediction is generated, Eroteme pulls live data relevant to the category — this is called the data enrichment layer.

For sports predictions, the AI sees current team form, head-to-head records, injury reports, and bookmaker odds. For crypto and financial predictions, it pulls real-time price data and technical indicators. For political predictions, it pulls polling averages and prediction market consensus.

For example, if you ask the AI about a Premier League match, it will know who's injured, what the current odds are at major bookmakers, recent form, and whether the home team has any tactical advantages. It then weighs all of this against historical patterns before producing a probability.

The AI is calibrated, not infallible. A 70% prediction means the outcome should happen roughly 7 times out of 10 — not every time. The AI will be wrong on some predictions. This is normal and expected.

Accuracy varies significantly by category. Sports and financial markets have rich, well-structured data and the AI performs meaningfully better than chance there. One-off world events with limited historical patterns are harder, and the AI is more uncertain.

Eroteme tracks Brier scores — a standard scoring rule that measures how well a probability prediction matches reality — to monitor calibration over time. Lower is better. We publish this on the accuracy page so you can see the AI's actual track record by category.

Treat the score as one input to your decision, never as a guaranteed tip.

The Convergence Score is the weighted average of every AI model's individual probability for the same outcome. Models with stronger track records in a given category get more weight in the average.

"Convergence" means how much the models agree with each other. A high Convergence Score means most or all of the models point to the same outcome — this is a strong signal. A low Convergence Score means the models disagree, which usually means the outcome is genuinely uncertain and you should be cautious.

When you see a 78% Convergence Score with all five models aligned, that's much more meaningful than a 78% score where the models are split 60/40.

Yes. No AI system can predict the future with certainty — and Eroteme doesn't claim to.

Even the best-calibrated prediction systems have significant error rates. The Convergence Score reflects uncertainty, not certainty. A 70% score is the AI's honest estimate that the outcome will happen 7 times out of 10 — which means 3 times out of 10 it won't.

This is why Eroteme publishes accuracy data openly and tracks Brier scores. We'd rather be honest about the AI's limitations than overclaim and lose your trust.

Scores update as new data becomes available. For sports markets the AI re-runs when team news breaks or odds move significantly. For crypto markets it updates as price action and on-chain signals change. For political markets it updates as new polls publish.

The exact frequency depends on the category — fast-moving markets like crypto can refresh multiple times an hour, while a long-range political market might only refresh once a day.

The score shown at the moment you confirm your stake is the score locked in for your position. Later updates don't change anything that's already been bet.

Eroteme actively monitors for systematic bias using Brier score calibration across outcome types. If the AI is consistently overestimating one side — for example, always picking favourites in sports — that shows up as poor calibration on a particular outcome bucket and the model weights are adjusted to compensate.

We're honest that no system is perfectly unbiased. Training data has biases. Models inherit them. The best we can do is measure carefully and correct what we find.

The AI currently covers six categories:

• Sports — football, basketball, MMA, esports
• Crypto and Finance — token price targets, market events
• Politics and Elections — election outcomes, legislative votes
• Esports — major tournaments
• World Events — geopolitical and macro events
• Entertainment — awards, releases, cultural moments

The AI is most confident in Sports and Crypto, where data signals are richest and patterns repeat. It's least confident in one-off World Events and Entertainment, where there's no historical baseline to calibrate against. Convergence Scores in those categories tend to be lower and more uncertain — and that's by design.

The AI has real advantages: it processes data faster than any human, it sees more sources, and it doesn't have emotional bias when a team you support is involved.

But it has real disadvantages too. It can't know things that aren't in its training data or live data feeds. It can misread context. It can miss late-breaking information. And it's calibrated — meaning it's designed to be roughly right on average, not always right on any individual market.

Treat the Convergence Score as a second opinion, not a replacement for your own judgment. The best predictors on Eroteme combine the AI signal with their own research.

USDC stands for USD Coin. It's a stablecoin — a type of digital currency pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. 1 USDC always equals $1, give or take a fraction of a cent.

It's issued by Circle, a regulated US payments company, and backed by cash and short-term US Treasuries held in reserve. Unlike Bitcoin or Ether, it doesn't fluctuate in value with the crypto market.

USDC runs on multiple blockchains. Eroteme uses USDC on Polygon. Read more at Circle's official page.

Four reasons:

• Instant settlement — payouts arrive in seconds, not the days a bank wire takes
• Programmable — smart contracts automatically release winnings when a market resolves, with no manual processing
• Global access — anyone with a crypto wallet can use it, no currency conversion or international transfer fees
• Transparent — every transaction is publicly verifiable on the Polygon blockchain

The honest tradeoff: using USDC requires a crypto wallet, which has a learning curve if you've never used one. We try to make this as simple as possible, but it's still a new concept for most people.

Eroteme runs on Polygon, an EVM-compatible blockchain optimised for low-cost, high-speed transactions.

Polygon is fast — transactions confirm in seconds instead of minutes — and cheap, with fees typically a fraction of a cent. This is why it works for prediction markets where users might place lots of small stakes.

Polygon is sometimes confused with Ethereum mainnet. They're related (Polygon was built to scale Ethereum) and they use the same wallet software, but they're separate networks. USDC on Ethereum mainnet is not the same as USDC on Polygon — you need to specifically use the Polygon version.

Here's the step-by-step:

1. Set up a wallet. Use Metamask, Coinbase Wallet, or sign in with email through Eroteme — we use Magic for embedded wallets so you don't need to install anything.

2. Add the Polygon network to your wallet (most wallets do this automatically when you connect to Eroteme).

3. Get USDC on Polygon. The easiest way is to buy USDC on a major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) and withdraw it directly to your Polygon wallet address. Or bridge USDC from Ethereum to Polygon if you already have it on Ethereum mainnet.

4. Connect your wallet to Eroteme via the Connect button in the top right.

5. Start betting. Your USDC balance appears automatically — there's no separate deposit step. The funds stay in your wallet until you place a stake.

For a full walkthrough, see the wallet setup guide.

The minimum stake is [X] USDC to keep transaction fees worth it relative to the bet size.

The maximum stake on any single market depends on market liquidity — the total amount of USDC available on the opposing side. You'll see the maximum you can stake displayed on each market before you confirm your bet.

If your prediction is correct, your winnings are paid out in USDC directly to your connected wallet.

The amount you win is your stake multiplied by the odds at the moment you placed it. For example, if you stake 10 USDC at 2.5x odds and you're right, you receive 25 USDC back (your original 10 plus 15 in winnings).

Eroteme takes a platform fee of [X]% on winnings only — never on stakes, and never on losing bets.

Settlement is automatic. Once the market resolves, the smart contract releases your USDC to your wallet — there's no claim button, no withdrawal request, nothing to fill in.

Settlement happens automatically the moment the market resolves. USDC arrives in your wallet within seconds — Polygon block times are roughly 2 seconds, so you'll typically see your winnings within a minute of the result being confirmed.

There's no withdrawal request, no manual processing, no holding period. The smart contract releases the funds directly to your wallet address.

If a market is voided, your full stake is returned to your wallet. No platform fee is charged.

This happens when: - The event doesn't take place (a match is postponed indefinitely, an election is delayed) - The result can't be reliably verified - A data error is detected before settlement

You don't need to do anything — the smart contract automatically refunds all participants when a market is marked as voided.

No. Your USDC stays in your wallet until you stake it on a market. When you place a bet, your stake is locked in a smart contract — code on Polygon — not held by Eroteme as a company.

This is called non-custodial escrow. The smart contract releases the funds to the winner automatically when the market resolves. Eroteme has no ability to seize, freeze, or move your funds.

Before you place a bet and after you win or lose, the USDC sits directly in your own wallet under your own control.

Three fees, in order of size:

• Platform fee on winnings: [X]% — only charged when you win, never on losing bets or on stakes you place
• Polygon gas fee: fractions of a cent — paid in MATIC (Polygon's native token), typically $0.001-$0.01 per transaction
• No deposit or withdrawal fees — USDC moves directly via Polygon, no intermediaries taking a cut

You'll need a small amount of MATIC to pay gas — see the question below.

Yes — and this catches a lot of new users out, so it's worth flagging clearly.

Polygon transactions are paid for in MATIC (Polygon's native token). Even though you're betting in USDC, you need a tiny amount of MATIC to cover the transaction fee — typically less than $0.01 per bet.

How to get it: - Most exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) sell MATIC and let you withdraw it to your Polygon wallet - Polygon has a free gas faucet that gives small amounts to new users - If you sign in with email through Eroteme, gas is sponsored automatically — you don't need to hold MATIC at all

If you see a "out of gas" or "insufficient funds for gas" error when placing a bet, this is what's happening. Top up your wallet with $1 worth of MATIC and you're set for hundreds of transactions.

It depends on your jurisdiction — and we can't give you legal advice. This is something you need to check yourself.

What we can tell you:

• Eroteme geo-blocks certain regions. UK users are blocked due to FCA exposure rules. US users should check their state-level regulations before participating.
• Eroteme is not a licensed gambling operator in any jurisdiction. We operate as a prediction market under skill-gaming frameworks where they exist.
• You are responsible for understanding the laws in your country and state.
• If you're unsure, consult a qualified legal or financial advisor — don't rely on what a website FAQ tells you.

For the current list of supported and blocked regions, see the supported regions page. For our full legal terms, see the legal page.

Eroteme never holds your private keys. We use non-custodial wallet connection, which means your wallet stays under your control at all times — connecting to Eroteme just lets the site read your address and ask your wallet to sign transactions.

Every transaction has to be approved manually in your wallet app. Eroteme can't move funds without you clicking "confirm" on a transaction yourself.

Standard Web3 security applies: - Never share your seed phrase with anyone, including support staff - Only connect your wallet to sites you've verified are real (always check the URL) - Review every transaction before signing — make sure the contract address and amounts are what you expect

No. Once a stake is confirmed on the blockchain, it cannot be cancelled or reversed — this is true of any blockchain transaction.

The only situation where you'll get your stake back is if the market itself is voided.

Always review the market, your prediction direction, and your stake amount carefully in your wallet popup before confirming. If something looks wrong, reject the transaction in your wallet — that's free and instant.

A platform fee of [X]% on winning bets. That's it.

We don't take a fee on stakes, we don't take a fee on losing bets, we don't manipulate the spread, and we don't bet against our users. The fee is the same percentage for everyone, applied at settlement, and clearly displayed before you confirm any stake.

Market results are sourced from official data providers — sports leagues, election commissions, financial data feeds — not from user reports. This means the resolution of a market is based on the same source of truth that bookmakers and news organisations use.

If you believe a result is wrong, you can raise a dispute via the results dispute page. Disputed markets are reviewed manually and either confirmed, corrected, or voided depending on the evidence.

Eroteme's smart contracts have been [audit status placeholder — e.g. "audited by [firm] in [date]" or "an independent audit is in progress"].

The full audit report and ongoing security disclosures are available on the security page.