Science predictions
AI forecasts for science and health: earthquakes, disease figures, space launches and research results. Four AI models research each question and vote, and every forecast is marked right or wrong once it settles.
Hit rate: 68% (41 of 60 settled forecasts correct)
Series
Open forecasts
- Earthquakes 5.5+ Worldwide November 9-15 prediction
AI: not 8 earthquakes of 5.5 or above, 91%
2026-11-16
Recent results
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above Worldwide November 2 - November 8 prediction
Incorrect · said 6 or fewer earthquakes, 85%
2026-11-09
- 6.0+ Magnitude Earthquake by End of October prediction
Incorrect · said does not occur in Japan, 60%
2026-11-04
- Earthquake Count 6.5 or Above October 26 - November 1 prediction
Correct · said 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above, 87%
2026-11-02
- Worldwide Earthquake by October 31 prediction
Correct · said a 7.0+ earthquake occurs, 66%
2026-11-01
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above October 26 - November 1 prediction
Correct · said there are more than 6, 84%
2026-11-02
- Earthquake Count 6.5 or Above October 19-25 prediction
Correct · said not 1 earthquake, 95%
2026-10-26
- 5.5 or Above Earthquake Count October 12-18 prediction
Correct · said more than 6 earthquakes, 93%
2026-10-19
- Measles Cases in U.S. by October 31 prediction
Incorrect · said under 4300 cases, 65%
2026-11-01
- Pneumonic Plague Case in Russia prediction
Correct · said no new case by October 15, 95%
2026-10-16
- Worldwide Earthquakes 5.5 or Above October 5-11 prediction
Correct · said 13 or fewer earthquakes, 95%
2026-10-12
- Earthquakes 6.5 or Above Worldwide October 5-11 prediction
Correct · said 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above, 87%
2026-10-12
- Worldwide Earthquakes 5.5 or Above September 28 - October 4 prediction
Incorrect · said 7 earthquakes, 95%
2026-10-05
- Earthquake Count 6.5 or Above September 28 - October 4 prediction
Correct · said no earthquake of 6.5 or above, 69%
2026-10-05
- 6.0+ Magnitude Earthquake by End of September prediction
Correct · said no 6.0+ earthquake in Mexico, 75%
2026-10-04
- Strong Earthquake Worldwide by September 30 prediction
Correct · said no 7.0+ earthquake occurs, 80%
2026-10-04
- OpenAI Millennium Prize Solution prediction
Correct · said no new solution by September 30, 95%
2026-10-01
- SpaceX Launch Count September 2026 prediction
Correct · said fewer than 12 launches, 72%
2026-10-01
- Anthropic Millennium Prize Solution prediction
Correct · said no announcement by September 30, 2026, 91%
2026-10-01
- AI Lab Millennium Prize Solution prediction
Correct · said no AI lab announces another by September 30, 2026, 75%
2026-10-01
- Worldwide Earthquakes 6.5 or Above, September 21-27 prediction
Correct · said there are not 2, 95%
2026-09-28
- Worldwide Earthquakes 5.5 or Above September 21-27 prediction
Correct · said 6 or fewer, 77%
2026-09-28
- Measles Cases in U.S. by September 30 prediction
Correct · said at least 3600+ cases, 80%
2026-10-01
- H200 GPU Rental Prices End of July prediction
Correct · said Ornn H200 Index not between $4.00 and $5.00, 65%
2026-07-31
- B200 GPU Rental Prices End of July prediction
Incorrect · said index not between $6.00 and $7.00, 75%
2026-07-31
- GPU Rental Prices (H100) End of June prediction
Correct · said Ornn H100 Index $2.00 or more, 65%
2026-06-30
- Measles Cases in U.S. by June 30 prediction
Incorrect · said at least 2200 cases, 65%
2026-06-30
- Unicycive FDA Approval Decision prediction
Incorrect · said FDA approves Oxylanthanum carbonate, 56%
2026-06-29
- 6.5 or Above Earthquakes June 15-21 prediction
Correct · said not exactly 2 earthquakes, 65%
2026-06-21
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above June 1 - June 7 prediction
Correct · said there are more than 5, 65%
2026-06-08
- Cingulate Ctx-1301 FDA Approval prediction
Correct · said FDA does not approve Ctx-1301, 65%
2026-05-31
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above May 25 - May 31 prediction
Correct · said 9 or fewer, 65%
2026-05-31
- 6.5+ Earthquakes May 25-31 prediction
Correct · said exactly 1 earthquake, 61%
2026-05-31
- Earthquakes 6.5+ May 18-24 prediction
Incorrect · said exactly 0 earthquakes, 55%
2026-05-24
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above May 18-24 prediction
Correct · said more than 9 earthquakes, 64%
2026-05-24
- Measles Cases in U.S. by May 31 prediction
Incorrect · said under 1900 cases, 42%
2026-05-31
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above May 11 - May 17 prediction
Correct · said 9 or fewer, 95%
2026-05-17
- Earthquake Count May 11 - May 17 prediction
Correct · said not exactly 0 earthquakes, 61%
2026-05-17
- Hantavirus US Case by May 15 prediction
Incorrect · said no confirmed case by May 15, 66%
2026-05-15
- Earthquake Count 6.5 or Above May 4-10 prediction
Incorrect · said not exactly 0, 58%
2026-05-10
- Earthquakes 5.5 or Above May 4 - May 10 prediction
Incorrect · said 9 or fewer earthquakes, 57%
2026-05-10
- Biggest Earthquake on November 4, 2026 prediction
Correct · said under 6.1, 84%
2026-11-05
- Biggest Earthquake on October 8, 2026 prediction
Correct · said 5.3 or higher, 95%
2026-10-09
- Biggest Earthquake on October 1, 2026 prediction
Correct · said 5.3 or higher, 75%
2026-10-02
- Biggest Earthquake on September 29, 2026 prediction
Correct · said not 5.3 to 5.4, 95%
2026-09-30
- Biggest Earthquake on September 28, 2026 prediction
Correct · said biggest is not 5.5 to 5.6, 73%
2026-09-29