5.5 or Above Earthquake Count October 12-18 prediction

The USGS catalogue, checked on 13 October 2026 at 12:01 UTC, lists three earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher in the window that opened at 12:00 AM ET on 12 October. They are a 5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga, a 6.1 near Río Grande, and a 6.7 on the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge. About 136 hours of the window remain, and it closes at 11:59 PM ET on Sunday 18 October. The forecast leans toward the count passing six. To stay at six or fewer, the rest of the window would need to add no more than three further events. Reaching seven needs four more. The record also gives a recent pace. Over the past 365 days, magnitude 5.5+ events averaged 1.28 per day. A 168-hour window held six or fewer events 29% of the time. In spells like this one, with three events already logged and 136 hours left, four or more additional events occurred 88% of the time. The count stayed within six or fewer in 12% of them. Earthquakes arrive irregularly, so a quiet stretch could still keep the total low. The catalogue can also change, because magnitudes are sometimes revised after the fact. A late revision of a borderline event, such as the 5.5 near Neiafu, would shift the tally. The thing to watch is how many new magnitude 5.5+ events the USGS lists over the next few days.