Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?

Analysis

Slight lean · Yes 56.25%. This is a modest probability edge, not a high-certainty outcome. Costco's last earnings report, covering the third fiscal quarter, put GAAP EPS at $4.93, missing the analyst forecast by four cents even though revenue topped estimates by more than $844 million to reach $70.53 billion, an 11.58 percent year over year gain. That mismatch, a revenue beat paired with an earnings miss, is the reason the next result is far from a sure thing. Company finance officials have kept investors updated with monthly sales calls through the summer, detailing comparable sales trends for the four week retail periods in July and August. Those updates, delivered by Investor Relations director Andrew Yoon, describe sales momentum but say nothing directly about margins or expenses, the two levers that actually decide whether reported profit clears a specific per share bar. Analyst estimates cited in coverage put full year operating earnings per share near $21, with some seeing room to run as high as $23 by fiscal 2028. That framing points to steady, not spectacular, quarterly growth, which is consistent with a result that could land close to the $6.69 threshold on either side of the line. Given the pattern of narrow misses and beats on this stock, the outcome likely comes down to cents, not dollars. Watch the actual fourth quarter release for membership fee income and gross margin, since those line items, more than headline sales growth, will decide whether reported profit clears the bar.</analysis>