Will US or Israel strike Iran first?

Analysis

The market appears to misunderstand the question given recent events. Operation Epic Fury shows US-Israel strikes are already coordinated, but the US is clearly the lead actor here. Key evidence for US leadership: 1. Defense Secretary Hegseth speaking as primary spokesperson suggests US operational command 2. Scale described as exceeding 2003 Iraq invasion indicates US-level resources and planning 3. Historical precedent: US leads major Middle East operations while Israel provides regional expertise 4. Nuclear targeting requires US bunker-busters and intelligence capabilities Israel lacks The market's 50/50 split ignores operational realities. When major powers coordinate with smaller allies, the major power typically leads planning and execution. Israel's ground invasion of Lebanon appears secondary to the main US-led air campaign. If future strikes occur, they'll likely follow this established pattern of US-led coordination rather than independent Israeli action. The infrastructure and command structure is already US-dominated.