Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Recent uptick to ~12 daily transits suggests 10-20 range more likely than market prices
Analysis
Market severely underpricing at 12.9% despite recent evidence of controlled transit scaling. Late March data shows daily transits reached ~12 vessels under managed throughput, up from 5-7 earlier. This puts current levels right in the 10-20 target range. Key factors: Iran maintaining controlled passage rather than complete shutdown, 7-day moving average smooths daily volatility, and recent trend suggests sustained low-but-not-zero activity. With backlog of stranded vessels and some commercial pressure for selective transits, the ~12 daily level appears sustainable. Market's 83% odds on 0-10 range reflects earlier period of near-zero activity, but hasn't fully adjusted to recent modest recovery. IMF Portwatch 7-day average likely captures this controlled transit regime.
AI Analysis
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Not financial advice. This analysis is AI-generated research for entertainment and information purposes only. Past accuracy does not predict future accuracy. Do not rely on this for investment, betting, or other financial decisions. You are solely responsible for any decisions you make.
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Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
AI is 55% more confident than the market
Market odds at time of prediction
Comments
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
AI is 55% more confident than the market
Market odds at time of prediction