Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Analysis

France have everything you want in a knockout team right now. Mbappé is the tournament's top scorer, their defensive unit just posted a clean sheet against Paraguay, and they've navigated this exact fixture before — beating Morocco at the 2022 semifinal stage. That experience matters when the pressure is on. Morocco are dangerous, make no mistake. Their 3-0 dismantling of Canada was emphatic, and their counter-attacking shape is designed to punish hesitant favourites. But the injury to striker Ismael Saibari is a genuine blow. Morocco need their forward runners to convert the moments they create, and losing that threat makes it far harder to hurt France when those breaks come. France's squad depth is the difference. When Morocco sit deep and try to make this a grind, Les Bleus can rotate, change the tempo, and find solutions from the bench. Morocco's strength is collective and disciplined — France's is individual brilliance plus a system behind it. The draw is a live result if Morocco absorb pressure and stay organised, but France have too many ways to win this game. Back France to get it done in regular time — the quality gap is real, and Saibari's absence tips the balance just enough.