Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?

Analysis

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 289.7 million barrels for the week ending August 21. That was down 3.7 million barrels from the prior week, as authorized sales continue to wind down. To hit 285 million barrels by the week ending August 28, the next report needs a decline of at least 4.7 million barrels. That would be a bigger single-week move than the most recent print. Weekly SPR figures can be uneven. Deliveries and reporting cutoffs do not land in tidy increments, so a larger draw is not impossible. But recent weekly changes have hovered in the 3 to 4 million barrel range. This is the tail end of a much larger 172 million barrel drawdown program that shows no clear sign of accelerating. A simple repeat of the prior week's pace would leave inventories near 286 million, just short of the threshold. Companion market prices for 270 million and lower levels are trading at fractions of a percent, suggesting traders place little confidence in a sudden multi-million-barrel plunge within a single week. The EIA reliably publishes this data every Wednesday, so there is little risk the numbers simply fail to appear before the deadline. The question here is one of magnitude, not timing. The one thing to watch: the September 2 EIA release for the week ending August 28. If it echoes the 3.7 million barrel pace, reserves will stay just above the 285 million mark.