Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Analysis

The Sweden Democrats have polled as Sweden's second-largest party since the 2022 election, and nothing in the closing stretch of this campaign has disturbed that order. Recent polling puts them at roughly 19 to 20.7 percent against a Moderate Party stuck near 17 to 18 percent. That gap shows up across multiple pollsters, not just one outlier survey. The Social Democrats remain clearly ahead near 25.8 percent. The top of the table is settled. The real contest is between SD and the Moderates for the runner-up spot. That gap has proven sticky for a reason. The campaign's dominant themes, crime, immigration and security, play directly to the Sweden Democrats' core identity. Their support has held even as the broader right-wing bloc's overall lead over the government has narrowed. The Moderates have had months to close a two-point margin. They have not managed it. None of this rules out a Moderate recovery. A standard polling miss, late tactical voting inside the right bloc, or a sudden economic message from the Moderates in the final days could still scramble the order. Sweden's efficient vote count should settle any dispute quickly once ballots are in. One thing to watch: whether the last high-quality polls before September 13 show the Moderates drawing level with the Sweden Democrats rather than trailing them.