Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.64% in September?

Analysis

The 10-year Treasury yield has spent early September trading in the high 4.7s, printing around 4.77% on September 3 and briefly testing 4.8%. That is its highest level since late 2023. To satisfy this market, the yield needs to fall roughly 13 to 15 basis points from those levels and hold there before September 30. That is a real move. It also runs directly against the current trend. The drivers pushing yields up look structural rather than temporary. A resilient labor market, expectations that the Federal Reserve holds policy higher for longer, heavy Treasury issuance, and deficit concerns are all in play. Strategists have been debating whether yields punch through 4.8%, not whether they slide back under 4.65%. Even a dovish comment from a Fed official only pulled the yield back to around 4.7%. That is nowhere close to the target. There is a real counterargument. Treasury yields can move 10 to 15 basis points in a matter of days on a soft jobs report or a surprisingly cool inflation print. This market only needs one qualifying daily close in three weeks. That keeps the door open, but it is not where the momentum currently points. With the tone of the market leaning toward higher yields rather than a reversal, the path of least resistance is sideways or up, not down through 4.64%. The one thing to watch is the mid-month CPI print and the next jobs report, either of which could deliver the downside surprise needed to flip this quickly.