Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Analysis

The freshest numbers, from Quaest's September 7 release, tell the story plainly: Lula at 36%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 29%, Augusto Cury at 8%, then Renan Santos bunched with Ronaldo Caiado at 3% each, and Zema trailing at 2%. A prior Quaest wave, from September 2, had already crowned Cury as what the pollster itself called the "terceiro colocado," with 10% to Renan's 3%. Datafolha's late-August soundings offered a slightly different order, with Caiado at 5% and Renan close behind at 4%, ahead of Zema and Cury in that particular scenario. But no poll in hand, from either house, has ever placed Renan Santos in the podium spot himself. That consistency across two independent pollsters is why the outcome leans against him. To crack third, Renan would need to more than double his support while Cury or Caiado simultaneously faded, a shift no fieldwork yet shows. Adding to his troubles, Brazil's deputy electoral prosecutor confirmed on September 4 that a preliminary inquiry is open into Renan Santos over alleged abuse of power and irregular fundraising, a distraction rather than a springboard. Watch the Datafolha survey fielded September 8 to 11: if Cury or Caiado stumble in it while Renan holds steady, the third-place contest opens up again.