Lula Keeps a Narrow First-Round Lead in Minas Gerais Over Flávio Bolsonaro

Quaest's fieldwork from September 9 has Lula out front in Minas Gerais's first round, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing and a fast-rising Augusto Cury eating into the field. That single snapshot, paired with Datafolha's August 22 reading showing Lula ahead by a wider margin, is why the forecast leans his way. The picture is not settled. Just two weeks earlier, the same Quaest series had Flávio numerically ahead, 31 to 30, meaning the state has swung within its own polling house inside a matter of days. Both readings sit close enough to the margin of error that pollsters themselves are calling it a technical tie. Complicating the narrative further, runoff simulations from the same Quaest wave show Flávio pulling ahead of Lula head-to-head, 40 to 37. That number has dominated headlines, but it measures a different contest entirely, the second round, not the first-round plurality this question actually turns on. Conflating the two would be a mistake, though it does suggest real momentum building for the Bolsonaro camp in the state. With roughly 15 percent still undecided and Cury's support jumping from 1 to 8 percent in two weeks, the first-round field remains unsettled. Watch whether Cury keeps climbing, since a minor candidate absorbing undecided voters could easily reshuffle who finishes first in Minas Gerais well before October 4.