Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Analysis

A Datafolha poll fielded September 13 put President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 39% of first-round voting intentions against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 35%, and reporting on surveys from Quaest, Datafolha and Meio/Ideia has consistently framed Lula as the leading name heading into the October vote. That four-point cushion is the clearest signal available, and it matters because incumbency in Brazil still carries real weight in a first round: consolidated leftist and centrist support can outlast a fragmented right, even when the right's standard-bearer looks fearsome in a head-to-head. And Flávio Bolsonaro does look fearsome there. Runoff simulations tell a messier story than the first-round numbers, Lula numerically ahead in one Datafolha cut, statistically tied with AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, and narrowly trailing Flávio in a Nexus/BTG Pactual poll, the first time any survey has shown him behind. That is real evidence of right-wing consolidation building underneath the surface, the kind of momentum that can eventually gnaw at a first-round lead too. Still, none of that runoff movement has yet translated into a first-round poll showing Lula overtaken. The gap is real but not wide, and it was measured only about three weeks before voters go to the polls, leaving little time for a fundamental reordering. Watch whether Flávio's runoff momentum starts showing up in first-round numbers themselves. If his share climbs while Lula's slips in the next round of first-round polling, this becomes a genuine toss-up rather than a lean.</analysis>