Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September?

Analysis

The 10-year note touched 4.992% intraday on a Friday session in mid-September, its highest reading since October 2023, before slipping back to close near 4.968%, according to reports. That is the concrete fact driving this whole debate: yields got close to 5%, not to the 5.10% line that actually matters for this contract. Official Treasury par yield curve data put the 10-year at 4.95% around September 10, and reports throughout the week clustered readings between roughly 4.96% and 4.97%. That leaves a gap of roughly 13 basis points to the 5.10% trigger, which is not nothing given the move already seen this month, but it is also not a small hurdle with only two and a half weeks of trading left in the window. The reasoning here is simple. Momentum has clearly been upward, climbing from around 4.8% in early September to near 4.97% by mid-month, pressured by a hotter core inflation print, oil-driven price worries and reported market expectations around a rate move at the coming Fed meeting. But an intraday touch of 4.99% is not a published closing settlement, and the contract requires the official Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve figure to actually reach 5.10%, not merely approach it. Watch the next core inflation and jobs data. Another hot print could easily push yields through the remaining 13 basis points; a cooler one likely keeps this comfortably out of reach.