Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Analysis

Every first-round survey in circulation puts Lula on top, not trailing. Datafolha, in fieldwork reported September 11, had him at 39 percent to Flávio Bolsonaro's 35, with the rest of the field, Cury, Caiado, Renan, Zema, bunched in single digits. Quaest, reported September 9, showed an even wider gap, 36 to 29. Reporting from that period explicitly described Lula as leading the opening round. The complication is the runoff math, which tells a different story. BTG Pactual/Nexus, AtlasIntel/Bloomberg and Datafolha runoff simulations all describe a head-to-head contest with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied, and one poll even gave the senator a narrow numerical edge. That competitiveness is real, but a tight simulated second round is not the same as a first-round reversal. For Lula to actually finish second on October 4, Bolsonaro would need to close and flip a first-round gap that, as of mid-September, still ran four to seven points, a bigger and faster shift than anything documented in these polls. That is why the second-place scenario remains the less likely outcome. The single biggest reason to reconsider quickly would be a fresh first-round poll showing Bolsonaro's line crossing above Lula's rather than just the runoff numbers tightening.