Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?

Analysis

Daily crossing counts through the Bab el-Mandeb have swung wildly this month, from as few as 15 to as many as 31 in a single day, according to tracking data cited by reporters covering the strait. Yet when those swings are smoothed into a running average, the picture steadies: the most recent seven-day figure aligned with official trade-monitoring sources stood at 27.3 as of mid-September, comfortably above the 25-transit line. That resilience makes sense given the underlying dynamics. The Houthis have repeatedly said their blockade targets Saudi-linked shipping specifically, not international traffic broadly, and reports suggest vessels unconnected to Riyadh continue moving through largely unimpeded. Even Houthi-released figures, though unverified and self-serving, claim dozens of commercial ships passing within 48-hour windows, an amount consistent with an average holding near or above 25 rather than collapsing beneath it. Still, the territorial gains are real and destabilizing. Control of Perim Island, the Mokha area and other Red Sea coastal points puts commercial shipping lanes within demonstrated missile and drone range, and history shows sudden drops can follow specific attacks, as seen when daily transits briefly halved from 30 to 15 within 24 hours. The single most important thing to watch is whether the Houthis follow through on strikes against non-Saudi vessels. Any attack broadening the campaign's targets could turn today's fragile average into a much lower one before month's end.