Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Analysis

An Insa survey published September 17, with fieldwork closing just before the vote, put AfD at 37 percent against the governing SPD's 35 percent, a margin thin enough to sit inside the usual polling error. That is the freshest snapshot available, and it caps a campaign in which every cited poll since late August has shown AfD ahead, though the gap has moved around considerably, from as little as two points to reported spreads of 15 to 20 points depending on pollster and timing. Momentum from next door matters here. AfD's roughly 44 percent finish in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month reportedly beat its own late polling there, feeding a narrative that AfD support has been undercounted this cycle in eastern Germany. If that pattern repeats, a modest lead in the final surveys could translate into a clearer win on the night. But Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is not a repeat of Saxony-Anhalt. Reports describe incumbent SPD premier Manuela Schwesig as notably more popular than AfD's lead candidate, and her campaign has been built explicitly around denying the party first place. With SPD closing ground in the most recent surveys, the result is genuinely competitive rather than settled. Watch whether Sunday's actual tally holds AfD above the SPD by more than the margin those last INSA and Infratest Dimap polls suggested, or whether Schwesig's turnout operation narrows or erases that lead.