Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?

Analysis

As of September 23, the US Geological Survey's catalog shows no earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher with an origin time inside the market's window, which runs from August 17 through the end of September. The largest nearby event so far is a magnitude 6.5 quake near Kainantu, Papua New Guinea, recorded September 20, alongside a smaller 5.4 aftershock in the same region. A magnitude 6.8 event appears in the record as well, but it falls before the window opened and so cannot count toward a qualifying result. Beyond that, USGS's rolling logs of recent seismicity show routine daily activity, including a 5.3 magnitude quake in Argentina and dozens of smaller events in Alaska, none approaching the 7.0 threshold. With roughly a week remaining before the window closes, the absence of a qualifying quake so far does not rule one out. Large earthquakes are inherently irregular events, and the catalog can still add a magnitude 7.0 or higher origin time before September 30 at 11:59:59 PM ET, or shortly after if a late-arriving report is later confirmed within the allowed revision period. The single most important thing to watch is whether any earthquake reaching magnitude 7.0 is logged by USGS with an origin time before that deadline, since only the agency's preferred magnitude and timestamp determine the outcome.