Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Analysis

The United States Geological Survey catalog already shows at least two earthquakes meeting the magnitude 5.5 threshold within the window running from September 21 through September 27. One was a magnitude 5.7 event in the Indian Ocean, about 1,670 kilometers south of South Africa's coast, reported on September 21. Another was a magnitude 5.5 quake recorded 61 kilometers east-northeast of Tadine, New Caledonia, on September 25. Other entries in the USGS feed from these dates, including a magnitude 4.9 event near Xunchang, China, and a magnitude 3.2 quake in Hawaii, fall below the threshold and would not count toward the total. The USGS catalog remains the authoritative source for this tally, and its records can be queried directly with the market's exact start and end times, though the supplied material does not include a complete, bounded count for the full week. Based on the pattern of qualifying events already appearing in the catalog partway through the period, the forecast leans toward the total exceeding six rather than staying at six or below. What to watch is the final USGS query for the full September 21-27 window once it closes, since any additional magnitude 5.5 or greater events recorded before the catalog is finalized would confirm whether the count clears that threshold.