Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Analysis

As of the latest check of the USGS earthquake catalog at 5:33 PM ET on September 26, four earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher had been recorded since the window opened on September 21: a 5.7 near Hihifo, a 6.6 and a 5.5 both near Tadine, New Caledonia, and a 5.6 near Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. About 34 hours remained in the seven-day measurement period at that point. That leaves room for at most two more qualifying quakes before the tally would exceed six. Over the trailing year, magnitude 5.5-plus events have occurred at a pace of roughly 1.3 per day worldwide, and historical seven-day stretches have stayed at six or fewer events about 27 percent of the time. But with most of this window already elapsed and only a day and a half left, the chance of three or more additional events landing in that narrow stretch has historically been closer to one in four, which is why the outlook still favors the count finishing at six or under. It is worth remembering that the USGS itself cautions that its running lists of recent earthquakes are not necessarily complete, and that magnitudes for recently detected events can be revised in the hours or days afterward. A fifth event reported near Kokopo has appeared in secondary earthquake trackers but its standing in the primary catalog was not independently confirmed in the material reviewed here. The single biggest variable left is whether any further quakes strike in the final day and a half, particularly in seismically active zones like the New Caledonia and Papua New Guinea region, which has already produced most of this week's activity.