Will Venezuela win on 2026-09-28?

Analysis

Japan, ranked 17th in the world, host 47th-ranked Venezuela in Hiroshima on September 28, and the numbers behind that gap in standing do much of the talking here. Official figures show the two sides have met five times, with Japan winning once, drawing three and losing once, a record that leans toward the hosts without making them invincible. Injuries complicate Japan's setup. Takehiro Tomiyasu will miss the match after a calf issue sustained in club action, and reports indicate at least one more defender was working on a separate training plan the day before kickoff. Those absences thin Japan's options at the back, even if the broader squad remains strong enough to be favored. Venezuela have their own fitness question mark. Midfielder Daniel Pereira is in the 34-man squad but is only described as a doubt to start because of a fitness concern, not ruled out, so his potential involvement is still in play rather than settled. Given the ranking gap and Japan's home setting, a Venezuela win looks like the least likely outcome of the three possibilities, with a home win or a draw considerably more probable. The clearest thing to watch is how Japan's back line copes with its injury absences, since defensive disruption is the most obvious route for Venezuela to find a way through.