Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?

Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on September 11, 2026 that core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent in August, up 2.4 percent over the year. One news report said the consensus expectation was 0.2 percent, so the latest reading came in hotter than forecast. The September figure is not out. The BLS page we read on September 29 is only an archive index and does not yet publish the number that decides this question. The release is scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The forecast leans against a 0.2 percent print, but only modestly. A Cleveland Fed nowcast, as of September 25 and seen only through a social media post, puts September core at 0.20 percent. That is a separate estimate, not a measurement, and a provisional one. It is the single most likely outcome, but it does not dominate the range. Reported figures are rounded to one decimal, so a small miss in either direction moves the result to 0.1 or 0.3 percent. August's beat is the obvious reason to respect the 0.3 percent alternative. The evidence gathered for this forecast does not explain what is driving core prices, so I can't say whether August's strength will carry into September. The thing to watch is the October 14 release. A core reading rounding to 0.3 percent again would show the August surprise was no one-off.