Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?

Analysis

On the September 29 read of the App Store's US Top Free chart, Meta's Muse sat at number one and ChatGPT at number two. That is the most concrete fact we have, and it points toward ChatGPT missing the top spot on October 2. Muse has reportedly held the lead since September 18, when it overtook ChatGPT. Reports indicate the app launched on September 8 and passed 2.5 million downloads by September 21, with a slightly higher two-week figure also cited. Chart snapshots from September 28 show the same order at the top, though one third-party listing put ChatGPT third, behind another photo app. Rankings have shifted a little from day to day, so ChatGPT's exact position is not fixed. The gap matters less than how long Muse's launch momentum lasts. Launch surges can fade, and ChatGPT was reported at number one as recently as August 28. If Muse cools, ChatGPT is well placed to return. The evidence gathered for this forecast does not show that happening, and it does not cover download trends after September 29. The chart for noon Eastern on October 2 is not yet available, so this is a judgment about persistence. Muse has a lead that has lasted about eleven days, and ChatGPT would have to displace it within three. Other apps, including a photo and video maker, are also climbing the chart, which adds to the uncertainty. The thing to watch is whether Muse slips from number one in the daily chart before October 2. That would be the first sign of ChatGPT regaining the lead.