Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?

Analysis

Banco de la República's benchmark rate stands at 12%. The board raised it three times this year, from 9.25%, most recently by 0.75 points in June, and then held in July. Official records show the next rate decision is scheduled for October 30, 2026, in Bogotá. The lean toward no change rests on the recent pattern and on the mood among analysts. Reports indicate that 18 of 23 institutions polled by Citi expected no change at the September 30 meeting. A separate survey of 22 institutions found 16 expecting a hold. That evidence concerns the September meeting, not October. The evidence gathered for this forecast contains no October-specific consensus, so the hold view is an inference from the recent stance and not a measured expectation. The risks are real. Reports say the July hold was decided four votes to three, with the three dissenters wanting another half point. A minority of the institutions polled expected a rise to between 12.25% and 12.5%. Reports from late September also say the peso was at its weakest since early July and that the chance of a hike had grown. A board that split closely in July does not offer a firm promise of stability. The hold is the more likely outcome, not a certain one. The thing to watch is the outcome of the September 30 decision and any vote split. A hike then, or a wider group of dissenters, would change the October picture most.