Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 28m?

Analysis

One projection reported on September 25 put Verity at an opening of $20 to $29 million when it arrives on October 2, 2026. That range straddles the $28 million line, but most of it sits below it. Our forecast leans toward the film falling short of $28 million. The deciding figure is the three-day domestic opening gross (October 2 to 4) on The Numbers. That source was read on September 30 and does not yet publish it. Its page, dated September 29, lists Verity as arriving October 2 in about 3,000 theaters, and that is a theater-count projection, not a gross. The film is an Amazon MGM Studios release directed by Michael Showalter, with Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson and Josh Hartnett. It has a reported $40 million budget. It is also the fourth Colleen Hoover adaptation. One review published September 30 said the earlier three, It Ends With Us, Regretting You and Reminders of Him, have collectively made over half a billion dollars in the last two years. That shows the author's audience is real. It does not show that Verity will reach the top of a range that tops out at $29 million. Early-access screenings were scheduled for September 30. The review calls the film a "dunderheaded riff" on Rebecca, which is one critic's view and not a measure of ticket sales. The thing to watch is the Friday number, previews included. A strong start that pushes projections toward the high end of the range would be the clearest sign that $28 million is within reach.