Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Analysis

Likud was projected at 18 seats in the latest Channel 13 poll, which a report published on 1 October described as released the previous week. That poll put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar on 22. A Maariv survey carried the same figure of 18 for Likud, with Netanyahu's bloc down to 49 seats. Even so, the forecast leans against Likud finishing below 20. Polls differ by pollster. One outlet's average of recent surveys, published on 30 September, had Likud at 21.9, and the party came first in Channel 14 and i24 News polls. A Kan News poll reported on 29 September gave Likud 21. The weaker numbers are still a real risk. Reports indicate Likud slid in successive Maariv polls, from 20 to 19 and then lower. A party hovering around the threshold can fall under it on a small shift. These are poll projections, not results, and the election is scheduled for 27 October. The race is also unsettled. Reports say the Central Elections Committee voted on 23 September to bar Ra'am and the Joint List from the ballot, and the Supreme Court has until 4 October to rule. That could change the political picture. The thing to watch is whether the Maariv and Channel 13 readings of 18 spread to the other pollsters. If Likud's average drops below 20, the picture changes.