Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-04?

Analysis

Netherlands beat Serbia 2-1 in Belgrade on Sunday, September 27, with Mexx Meerdink scoring twice, and they now host the same opponent in Eindhoven on October 4. That recent result is the clearest reason this forecast leans toward a Dutch win in the first 90 minutes. Serbia's form is poor. Reports indicate they have lost four games in a row for the first time in over 20 years and sit bottom of League A, Group 2. Veljko Paunovic has lost six of his eight matches in charge, and one account says the pressure is building because relegation to League B is a live threat. The Dutch are not at full strength. Cody Gakpo hurt his ankle in Belgrade and has been ruled out of both October matches, with no replacement called up. Jan Paul van Hecke also left the squad with a foot injury. Those are real losses, and they are the main reason this is a lean and not a certainty. Serbia have their own selection questions. Paunovic confirmed Sergej Milinkovic-Savic was not with the squad for the October 1 trip to Germany, and gave no diagnosis. That match was still to be played at the time of this forecast, so his availability for Eindhoven is not known. A draw is also a possible result, and the Netherlands must win within regulation time. The thing to watch is how well the Dutch attack copes without Gakpo, because that decides whether home advantage and recent form turn into a win.