Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Analysis

Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said on Oct 1 that the co-pilot who allegedly stabbed his captain on flydubai flight FZ1073 had undergone radical Islamist indoctrination and was clearly suicidal. That is a statement about ideology and personal state of mind. It does not say Iran or any affiliated group ordered, planned or aided the attack, which is what a qualifying accusation would need to claim. Netanyahu has left the door slightly open. In a reports interview he said Israel would get to the root of the attacker, including whether he had accomplices and whether Iran was behind it, and that he thought they would find out very soon. Asked separately about Iranian involvement, he said it was too early to say. Reports indicate that there have been no official Israeli suggestions of Iranian involvement. The more telling signal comes from two Israeli security officials, who said the initial assessment was that the co-pilot was likely acting alone, though the investigation continues. The suspect, an Omani citizen, is under arrest, and Saudi, Emirati and Israeli authorities are investigating, with US and Omani help. The motive remained unknown as of Oct 1, according to reports. So the forecast leans toward Israel not formally blaming Iran or a proxy by Oct 31. The remaining risk is political: Netanyahu is openly hostile to Iran, and a single on-the-record remark from a minister would be enough. The evidence runs only to Oct 2. What to watch: any finding from the joint investigation of contact between the co-pilot and Iran-linked networks, since that is what would turn Netanyahu's questions into an accusation.