Israel election: will Likud lose seats?

Analysis

Every poll figure in the supplied reporting puts Likud well under 32 seats. A Maariv survey reported on October 2 has the party at 19, up from 18. A separate Direct Polls survey, also reported that day, has it at 28, which is the highest figure in the material. An average of the latest polls from eight outlets, reported on October 2, puts Likud at 22.1 seats. The same average gives Netanyahu's outgoing coalition 50.8 seats, about ten short of a majority. Only one outlet, Channel 14, puts the bloc at 61 or more. So Likud would need to beat even its most favourable poll by at least four seats to reach 32. Polls are not results, and the supplied reporting does not say how accurate they have been in past Israeli elections. Still, the gap between the polls and the threshold is wide. The other route to the opposite result is a delay. Former prime minister Ehud Barak said on October 3 that Netanyahu was "laying the groundwork" for a war that could postpone the vote. That is a political opponent's allegation, reported but not confirmed, and the election is still reported as set for October 27. Court rulings on October 2 cleared Ra'am, the Joint List and MK Ofer Cassif to run, which suggests preparations are continuing. The thing to watch is any official move to postpone the election, since that would change the picture more than any single poll.