Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?

Analysis

The latest official reading is August's. On 30 September 2026 the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 0.2 percent that month, while the headline index rose 0.3 percent. That release also carried the annual update of the National Economic Accounts, with revisions back to January 2021. Older figures are therefore not directly comparable with the updated ones. September is what decides this question, and the BEA page I read on 5 October 2026 does not yet publish it. The figure is scheduled for release on 29 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Nothing cited here is that figure. The forecast leans against a 0.3 percent print mainly because of one estimate. A Cleveland Fed nowcast, which is an estimate and not an official statistic, put September core PCE at 0.25 percent month on month. The same table lists other estimates of 0.53, 0.20 and 0.43 for different measures. I can't say from the supplied material how those differ, so I put no weight on them. The BEA reports to one decimal place, and a 0.25 nowcast sits close to the line between 0.2 and 0.3. So a 0.3 print is still quite possible. The forecast only leans against it. Watch the 29 October release. If the official September core figure is rounded to 0.3 percent, this forecast fails.