Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

Analysis

The last Quaest poll before Bahia voted, fielded 2 and 3 October among 2,004 voters, put Governor Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT at 52% of valid votes against 48% for ACM Neto of União Brasil. The margin of error is two points, and reports describe the race as a technical tie. What gives the forecast its lean is direction. In total votes, Rodrigues rose from 40% in the 24 September Quaest survey to 46%, while ACM Neto was reported at 42%. The same poll's runoff simulation had Rodrigues ahead, 47% to 43%. Quaest also reported 56% approval of his government. That reverses the earlier picture. In the previous Quaest round, ACM Neto was numerically ahead, 42% to 40% in total votes, and 45% to 43% in a runoff simulation. He led every earlier round of Quaest polling, and his base has held up. So the edge for Rodrigues is modest. The final poll comes from a single pollster, and the earlier round used a smaller sample of 900. The two surveys are successive readings from the same firm, not independent confirmation. A first-round majority is not assured, and a runoff on 25 October remains possible and could be close. The cutoff falls on election morning, with no certified result. The thing to watch is the official count from the electoral court: whether Rodrigues clears a majority of valid votes in the first round or is pushed into a runoff with ACM Neto.