Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?

Analysis

The Social Reckoning grossed $650,000 from Thursday previews, reports indicate, and the studio is expecting around $7 million for the three-day frame from about 2,600 North American theaters. That is the freshest figure in the evidence, dated October 9, and it sits above the $5 million line. Earlier projections point the same way. One trade report on October 7 had the film targeting $7 million to $8 million in North America, and another projection reported on October 8 had it at $8 million from 2,200 locations. A third report on October 9 described tracking of $5 million to $10 million, which puts the low end right at the threshold but leaves most of the range above it. The risk is real. One report on October 9 said the film's critic score on a review aggregator had slipped to 59%, and suggested that mixed reviews and fatigue with another Mark Zuckerberg story could mean a weak weekend. That is commentary, not a measured gross. The deciding source, The Numbers, was read on October 9 and does not yet publish the three-day opening figure. It showed only the $650,000 preview total, so nothing cited here is the final number. The main thing to watch is the Friday and Saturday reporting. A weekend estimate drifting toward $5 million, below the studio's $7 million expectation, would change the picture most.