US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Analysis

The most concrete fact is a licence. OFAC's General License 135 authorizes "the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin" through April 7, 2027. That carves an exception out of the standing import ban, so the legal barrier is gone. A legal barrier removed is not a tanker at a US dock. The forecast leans toward the outcome that no qualifying Russian diesel is imported by October 31, and the reasons are practical. Reports say Moscow has kept a diesel export ban in place through the end of October after Ukrainian drone attacks hit refineries and energy infrastructure. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told TASS that restrictions would begin lifting immediately, which pulls the other way, but it does not settle when barrels actually sail. Trump's announced volumes are for "U.S. and global marketplaces", not for America alone. He spoke of 300,000 tons immediately and more in November. That is a headline supply number with no stated destination split, and the full terms of the deal were unclear in the reporting. Reports citing Novak say supplies could reach the US market as early as October, which is a hope, not an arrival. There is a real path to the opposite result. AP reported the licence covers diesel already loaded on tankers as of Friday, so a cargo at sea could be diverted to a US port. Even so, the contract needs physical delivery, not an announcement. Watch for the first credible report of a Russian diesel tanker discharging at a US port before the month ends. EIA's next data release is scheduled for October 30.