Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Analysis

The USGS catalogue, checked on 10 October 2026 at 12:01 UTC, lists exactly two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher in the window from 5 October to 11 October. They are a magnitude 7.7 near Pitaloza Arriba, Panama, at 17:56 UTC on 9 October, and a magnitude 6.6 near Río Grande, Panama, at 20:25 UTC the same day. About 40 hours of the window remained at that check. The forecast leans toward a final count of exactly two because the count is already there. The main risk is a third event. In the past year, according to the catalogue analysis, a new magnitude 6.5 or higher event arrived within 40 hours in 16% of comparable spells. A large aftershock near the Panama rupture would push the count to three or more, though the record does not show one so far. A magnitude 6.0 event near La Tronosa, Panama, appears in the catalogue on 10 October at 04:14 UTC, below the threshold. A second risk is revision. The larger quake was first estimated at magnitude 8.0 and revised down to 7.7, which is still well above the line. The 6.6 event sits close to 6.5, so a downward revision could drop the count to one. No such revision has been confirmed in the supplied records. The thing to watch is any new strong aftershock in Panama, or a change to the 6.6 magnitude, in the catalogue before the window closes on 11 October.