Will Richard Blundell win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?

Analysis

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences is due to be announced on Monday, 12 October, at 11:45 CEST at the earliest, according to the Nobel Prize press room. As of the forecast time that announcement had not yet happened, and the prize page said it had not been awarded. Blundell is plainly in the conversation. One report published on 8 October lists the University College London economist at 9-10% and credits him with turning household microeconomics, including work, consumption and taxes, into a rigorous empirical field. Another report, dated 10 October, names him among the economists drawing the most attention, alongside Ariel Pakes, Michael Woodford and Susan Athey. There is also a striking endorsement. In a December 2025 interview, 2025 laureate Philippe Aghion said he was sure Blundell would be a Nobel laureate, and he praised their collaboration on firm-level micro data. That is one colleague's view, not a signal from the committee. The reason for leaning against a win this year is simple. The reporting describes a wide field, with 250 to 300 candidates mentioned, and says the prize's focus tends to change from year to year. Blundell is one name among many, and the supplied material does not show that this year's committee is pointed at his area. What to watch is the announcement itself on 12 October. If the citation names household, labor or tax microeconomics, the picture changes.