Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?

Analysis

A rating change published on Sept. 25 moved the Texas 35th District, near San Antonio, toward Democrats. Reports indicate the Cook Political Report now rates the open seat Lean Republican, down a notch from Likely Republican. It was one of three Texas races to shift, among 15 House races nationwide. The Republican case rests on the district's lean. Trump carried it by 10 points in 2024, and reports indicate he won it by 2 points in 2020. The same analysis reportedly describes a Republican structural advantage. It also cites private polling, with no methods disclosed, that shows the Republican candidate, Carlos De La Cruz Jr., ahead or tied. That is a thin evidentiary base, and none of it is an election result. The Democratic case is the direction of travel. The rating moved only one notch and stops short of a toss-up. Even so, reports indicate super PACs from both parties are planning to invest, and the race is described as competitive given statewide dynamics. A national environment that favors Democrats could put an open seat in play. Republicans therefore look like modest favorites, not safe holders. No public polls with disclosed methods are in the record. The thing to watch is whether the rating moves again, to toss-up, once early voting opens on Oct. 19 and the planned super PAC money arrives.