Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?

Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 14 October that consumer prices rose 3.7 percent over the 12 months ending September, before seasonal adjustment. That was up from 3.4 percent in August. The October figure, which decides this question, is scheduled for release on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The BLS page we read does not yet carry that figure, so the deciding number does not exist yet. The forecast leans against October landing on exactly 3.7 percent. That is not because September was soft. The monthly gain was 0.6 percent seasonally adjusted, the biggest in five months, after 0.4 percent in August. One news report said economists polled by reports had expected 0.6 percent for the month and 3.6 percent for the year, so the annual reading came in above that forecast. The pull toward a different number is simple. The annual rate has to hold at one decimal, and the neighbouring readings are all live. After a jump from 3.4 to 3.7, October can easily print higher or lower. Staying exactly put is only one of several outcomes. The BLS also said the index excluding food and energy rose 2.6 percent over the year, after 2.4 percent. One news report said price increases were spread more broadly across the economy, which argues against a quick reversal. It does not pin October to a single decimal. Watch the October CPI release on November 10. A monthly gain close to September's would be the clearest sign that the annual rate is moving off 3.7 percent.