Will "Whalefall" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?

Analysis

Whalefall took in $900,000 from Thursday previews, according to trade reports published October 16, and the studio projects a three-day opening between $10 million and $12 million. That projection sits above the $8 million line, so the less-than-$8-million outcome looks the less likely one. The film opens in 3,065 North American theaters from 20th Century Studios, with a reported $60 million budget. One trade report says it is looking to claim second place for the weekend. Reviews give it some support too. The film holds a 70 percent critics approval rating on reports, and one report says positive reviews should give it staying power. The case for a lower number is real, though. A single projected range is not a result, and $900,000 in previews is small next to the $4 million that Street Fighter reported for its previews. One review in the trade press called the film dumb and overly serious, so audience reaction is not guaranteed. If the weekend came in under the projected range, the $8 million line could come into play. The deciding source, The Numbers, was read on October 15 and does not yet publish a Whalefall opening weekend figure. The October 16 to 18 weekend had not happened when this was written. The thing to watch is the Friday and Saturday reporting. If those figures come in well short of the studio's range, this picture changes quickly.