Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?

Analysis

Two Democrats, Kevin Fagan and David Womack, have registered with the FEC for the WA-05 seat. They face Republican Anthony Jensen and independents Nate Powell and Ann Marie Danimus, according to FEC candidate records. Registration is paperwork, though, and it does not show who made the November ballot. The case for a Democratic win rests on national mood. A survey published on October 16 found 51 percent of adults chose Democrats when asked which party would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous. That is one issue, asked of adults nationwide, so it is a weak guide to how a single Washington district will vote. That gap is why the forecast leans toward a non-Democratic winner. The evidence gathered for this forecast does not include district polling, past WA-05 results, the August 4 top-two primary outcome or the name of the incumbent. The FEC page has an incumbent field, but it is blank. Without local evidence of a Democratic advantage, a Republican or other non-Democratic victory fits the record at least as well. The lean is modest rather than emphatic. The contest is decided by the general election on Tuesday, November 3, and had not been held at the cutoff. The thing to watch is the primary result. Which two candidates advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary, and by what margin, would say more about the district than any national poll.